Tuesday 23rd

Okay so onto day 2 after yesterday’s bleak start. With some luck the jumps racing will be back in full swing after two days off.

I’ve made the following selections ..

  • 2PT WIN – 3.10 Pentominium 5/6 Betfair – Price is somewhat skinny, but I think this will go off a lot shorter than 5/6 so it’s a decent price. I also think it will win with ease and having missed out yesterday want to get on the board.
  • 1PT WIN – 3.40 Pegasus Again 7/2 Betfair – This race looks tricky and probably should be left alone. However Pegasus Again won last time out beating main market rival Den’s Gift in the process. It is quite a hot race though and I do like Den’s Gift, Thunderball and Red Somerset also so perhaps it should be a watching brief but well you don’t get rich watching. I will add Thunderball at a price looks a better value prospect but again would rather we won something.
  • 1PT WIN – 5.20 Canni Thinkaar 8/5 Betfair – Again a skinny price but this horse has far too much class for this field. Won with ease last time out in soft ground and although trip’s a little further without any extra weight and against what looks an even worse field than last time, it has a great chance. Gunship is the one who most concerns me and is a possible worthy e/w bet.
  • 1PT TREBLE WIN – 3.10 Pentominium. 2.45 Dr Whizz. 5.20 Canni Thinkaar –  SP Bet365. Just trying my luck with the treble. Give it another shot but if they keep failing then I’ll stick to single bets.

In addition to the above bets for tomorrow’s racing and I did also look at Muktasb in the 4.40 as a possible selection, hence being as I didn’t back that one it will win. I’ve also had a couple of ante-post bets. One basically on the say so of Pricewise from the Racing Post. Which is Summit Meeting at 33s on Betfair for the Neptune Investment Hurdle at Cheltenham. I haven’t even considered if it’s worth a bet, I’ve just backed it on the principle that Pricewise will move the market! It happened with Blackstairmountain who was backed in from 18s to 10s so well I figure if Summit Meeting gets backed into 20s then I get a nice free bet. Hopefully the price will be gone later. It’s one positive about getting the opportunity to read the Racing Post ahead of the general public. Mind whether it proves worthwhile is another thing.

The other bet is for the weekend’s Racing Post Trophy and in this I’ve backed Madison du Berlais for 1PT WIN at 11s on Betfair. Again this is possibly looking at a back to lay, I think the horse will go off shorter and although there are a few other I like again it’s more to look at gaining a free bet. Though I will add the horse has class and came 2nd to Kauto Star over the same course and difference beating current market leader Nacarat, for the King George Nacarat was priced at 25s and Madison du Berlais 10s now the tables are turned and frankly I’m not sure why considering Madison beat Nacarat that day and I may add beat Denman over the Kempton twigs in February last year.   

In other news Ipswich head to Scunny tonight, I predict we will go into an early lead and then draw 1-1. Happy hunting. Is anyone reading yet by the way?

p.s. just an edit on the Madison tip pulled this from the BBC 606 site – it’s worth noting.

Here are some trends for a difficult looking racing post chase:

20/21 winners had won over 2m5f+
13/14 winners had won a class 2 race or better.
12/13 winners had won at the course before if they ran there.
10/11 winners had won LTO.
9/10 winners had 2-4 chase runs since August.
9/11 winners had won or placed in a listed/graded chase.
9/11 winners had won a chase worth 16K+
8/11 winners had ran in the past 30 days.
8/11 winners had run in 7 or less handicap chases.

The last 3 winners of this race have fit all 9 of these trends yet no horse entered fits them all this year. 4 horses fit 7 of these trends they are:

madison du berlais
nacarat
ollie magern
piraya

however
19/21 were 10/1 or less (including last 12)
11/12 were in the 1st 4 in the betting
11/12 were rated 143+
10/11 carried 10-12+

This pretty much leaves us with Madison du berlais and nacarat.

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~ by Administrator on February 23, 2010.

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